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Rishi Sunak is facing an anxious wait to see if he will be dealt a chastening triple blow as votes are counted in three by-elections.
Ballot papers are being tallied in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Selby and Ainsty, and Somerton and Frome after local voters spent yesterday choosing new MPs following recent resignations from the House of Commons.
The results of all three contests are expected in the early hours of this morning, after polling stations were open between 7am and 10pm on Thursday.
The Prime Minister is braced for defeat in all three constituencies, which were all won by the Tories at the 2019 general election.
The Liberal Democrats were already declaring themselves the victors in Somerton and Frome and claimed they had ‘romped home’ in the Somerset seat, where the Tories were defending a 19,000 majority.
If Mr Sunak does suffer a triple loss, he will become the first PM for 55 years – since Labour’s Harold Wilson in 1968 – to lose three seats at by-elections on the same day.
It will also rattle Tory MPs about their chances of keeping Sir Keir Starmer out of Downing Street ahead of the next general election, which is expected next year.
As polling stations closed last night, a Tory source admitted the party was in for a ‘very challenging’ night.
Rishi Sunak is facing an anxious wait to see if he will be dealt a chastening triple blow as votes are counted in three by-elections
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour are hoping to snatch both Selby and Ainsty, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip from the Tories
Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats are eyeing victory in Somerton and Frome to take another West Country seat off the Tories at a by-election
The Lib Dem leader expressed confidence of a win in the Somerset constituency, which would see the Tories shed a 19,000 majority
Sir Ed made a reference to a Lib Dem stunt at the launch of their local elections campaign earlier this year, where they used a tractor to drive through the Tories’ ‘Blue Wall’
Labour are hoping to snatch both Selby and Ainsty, as well as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, while the Liberal Democrats have claimed victory in Somerton and Frome to take another West Country seat off the Tories at a by-election.
Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine told Sky News at the by-election count in Shepton Mallet, Somerset: ‘We’re not just confident we’ve won, we’re confident we’ve romped home.
‘We’ve won this quite decisively, the Conservative vote is just collapsing.’
Party leader Sir Ed Davey emailed supporters last night to boast his party was set for ‘another historic result’.
Sir Keir is thought to be planning a victory tour and preparing to visit both Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Selby and Ainsty today.
But party chair Anneliese Dodds attempted to play down her party’s chances last night.
She told BBC’s Newsnight: ‘We have a situation here of three constituencies that have never returned a Labour MP.
‘If Labour were to win in Uxbridge then that would require a bigger swing that we even had in the 1997 landslide election.
‘If we win in Selby and Ainsty, it would require the biggest swing to Labour ever in a by-election.
‘So these are incredibly challenging elections for Labour.’
Andrew Jones, Tory MP for nearby Harrogate and Knaresborough, said the Selby and Ainsty result would be ‘very close’.
‘Obviously we are defending a big majority, we all know what the numbers are, but obviously, as well, this has been a period of extreme political turbulence and anything can happen in a by-election,’ he told the BBC.
Mr Jones dismissed suggestions the PM could be in peril if the Tories lose all three seats.
In a message to his fellow Tory MPs, he said: ‘We’ve just got to get our head down, work, and get through this period.
‘I’ve not felt any sense the Labour Party was pulling people into them.
‘I’ve sensed frustration, particularly in the cause of this by-election – the sitting MP (Nigel Adams) walking away has been a sense of disappointment, and that’s putting it quite mildly.’
The Tory source was downbeat about the party’s chances in all three seats.
They said: ‘There’s no doubt that this was always going to be a very challenging set of by-elections, especially given the circumstances in which they were brought about.
‘We have to wait for the results to come in, but by-elections are rarely won by governing parties and they are rarely good indicators of general election performance.
‘Across all of these campaigns we have heard zero enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party and their lack of answers.
‘We now need to redouble our efforts earning back the trust of voters by delivering on our plan to halve inflation, grow the economy , reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.’
Votes are counted at Queensmead Sports Centre in South Ruislip, west London, as Labour look to take Boris Johnson’s old seat off the Tories
Ballot papers were also being tallied at Selby Leisure Centre in Selby, North Yorkshire, where Labour were also eyeing a victory
Ballot boxes arrive at the Bath & West Showground in Shepton Mallet, Somerset, as counting begins in the Somerton and Frome by-election
The Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election was triggered by ex-PM Boris Johnson’s resignation from the Commons last month, amid his anger at another Partygate probe finding against him.
Selby and Ainsty, in North Yorkshire, was vacated by ex-minister Nigel Adams – an ally of Mr Johnson – who quit the Commons a day after the former premier following a row over a peerage.
The contest in Somerton and Frome, in Somerset, was triggered by the resignation of David Warburton as the local MP after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment.
Ms Jardine claimed taking the Somerset constituency off the Tories would be a ‘watershed moment’ for the Lib Dems.
‘It would prove yet again that in vast swathes of the country, from Somerset to Surrey, the best way to get rid of this Conservative government is to vote for the Liberal Democrats,’ she said.
The Tories retain some hope they could yet cling on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, where there has been a local backlash against Labour mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of the capital’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).
Labour’s candidate in the constituency, Danny Beales, recently demanded a delay to the ULEZ expansion despite him having previously signalled support for the move.
A Labour spokesman tried to manage expectations of a double victory for Sir Keir as polling stations closed last night.
They said: ‘It’s going to be some time before we get any results. But what we do know is that none of these seats have ever had a Labour MP before, so they were always going to be a challenge.
‘We didn’t even win Uxbridge in 1997 and to win Selby and Ainsty would require us to overturn the biggest majority in our history.
‘So while we don’t know if we’ve made it over the line, it’s clear that Keir Starmer’s leadership of a changed Labour Party, back in the service of working people, has seen voters put their trust in us — many for the first time.’
The Tories retain some hope they could yet cling on to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, in west London, where there has been a local backlash against the ULEZ expansion
The seat of Selby and Ainsty, in North Yorkshire, was vacated by ex-minister Nigel Adams following a row over a peerage
The contest in Somerton and Frome, in Somerset, was triggered by the resignation of David Warburton as the local MP after admitting cocaine use amid allegations of sexual harassment
On Wednesday night, Mr Sunak issued a rallying call to Tory MPs despite admitting the three by-election contests would be a ‘tough battle’.
At an end-of-term meeting of the Conservatives’ 1922 Committee, before Parliament’s summer recess, the PM appealed for his MPs to unite regardless of the by-election results and pledged to ‘throw everything’ at winning the next general election.
Mr Sunak said: ‘In the coming months, I am going to set out more of what I would do if I had a full term.
‘I was recently described as a full spectrum modern Conservative and you are going to see that in the programme I lay out.’
The PM also vowed to show the public ‘who is really on their side’, adding: ‘And that is what will propel us to victory.’
On Thursday, Sir Keir urged voters to ‘vote for change’ in the three by-elections, posting on Twitter: ‘Where you start, shouldn’t determine where you end up.
‘When you work hard, you should be able to get on. Labour’s mission to grow a secure economy in Britain will mean your ambition is realised.’
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said a victory for his party in Somerton and Frome would ‘send a clear message to the Conservatives that they have failed our country on the NHS, the cost-of-living crisis and protecting our rural communities’.
‘If the Liberal Democrats succeed in overturning this massive 19,000 Conservative majority, it will show voters in Somerset are fed up with being taken for granted by Rishi Sunak and his failing Government,’ he added.
If the Tories do lose all three seats, it would see them shed sizeable majorities in each constituency.
Mr Johnson held Uxbridge and South Ruislip with a 7,000 majority when he was prime minister at the last general election in 2019.
Mr Adams secured North Yorkshire’s Selby and Ainsty with a 20,000 majority that night, a similar margin to Mr Warburton’s victory in Somerton and Frome.
The PM’s press secretary this week acknowledged it would be tough for the Tories to hold the three seats on Thursday.
She said: ‘By-elections, for incumbent governments, are very difficult, that is the nature of them.
‘The election that the Conservative Party is most focused on is the general election.’
Sir Keir’s spokesman downplayed Labour’s chances, saying Uxbridge and South Ruislip was not won even during the party’s 1997 landslide victory under Tony Blair, while Selby and Ainsty would require their best by-election result since the Second World War.
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